Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
